Superforecasting av Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner

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<p><b><i>The international bestseller</i></b><br><br><b>''A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.'' </b>Daniel Kahneman, author of <i>Thinking, Fast and Slow</i><br><b>_________________________<br></b><b>What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?</b><br><br>Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we''re not very good at it.<br><br>In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock''s latest project ¿ an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions ¿ has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable fo